Value Betting in Football

Value betting in football is about determining the chances of each team winning, in comparison to the odds. When a punter can correctly determine that a team has a better chance of winning than the odds reflect, this is a value bet.

Put in simple terms, a punter must imagine the particular matchup being played in a much larger sample size, then determine what percentage of those games each team would win. For example, if a game could be played 100 or 1000 times on the same day under exactly the same circumstances, how many of them would be won by team A, and how many would be won by team B. Punters need to assume that the game is played at the same venue, at the same time, with all of the same players (and player injuries) etc – with no changes whatsoever. Then, considering all aspects of a game that could play out differently, how many games in that sample size would each team win? These numbers are then compared to the odds to find bets which provide value.

How to Find Value

There are a few ways that a punter might find value. The first is by finding an error by the bookmaker before betting online in football. An error can be made when a linesmaker simply misses some aspect of the game. They don’t often miss critical aspects such as a key player that will be sidelined due to injury or a teams inability to win away from their home field. However, they may not have considered that a key player has an injury that will limit their ability to play at full strength. If a teams star player can’t run at 100% or move like they normally do, these are the kinds of things that could give the punter an advantage large enough to provide value.

Another way that punters can find value is when a bookmaker is shading a line. This happens when one team is greatly favoured to win over their opponent, and the bookmaker knows the favourite will generate heavier betting than the underdog. When a bookmaker sets the odds to a match, they’re trying to create even betting on each side, exposing them to less risk. So, although they might think team A should be listed at 1/3, a bookmaker might open the odds at 2/7 instead. By giving lower odds on the favourite and higher odds on the underdog, more people will bet on the dog, creating closer to 50/50 betting.

Betting sites are looking to make their money on the vig (aka vigorish or juice), not on lost wagers. When a bookmaker can get 50/50 betting on a match, they’ll generally make 10% commission without taking any risk. When you combine this to hundreds or thousands of bets per day, a 10% commission can be a huge profit for a bookmaker. When a book has 70/30 betting on a popular wager, they open themselves up to lose (or make) a lot of money, but this is not the way the industry is run. Instead, they’re trying to make their commission on hundreds or thousands of coin flips every day, where the risk is put on the punters instead of themselves.

Another way that punters can find value is when the public creates line movement. When the public moves a line, the value of a bet changes. Some bets will provide more value, and others will provide less. So, as the odds change, a sharp punter can see where the new value is and bet according. This happens when one team in a football match is generating heavier betting action than their opponent. As mentioned above, big favourites tend to generate a higher percentage of wagers than underdogs, regardless of the odds. This is especially common when the favoured team has a larger fan base than the underdog. This can create value for the underdog, and good betting opportunities for sharp punters.

How to Calculate Value in Football Betting

When calculating the value of a football bet, it’s easier to do the math in decimal odds than fractional. So, if you aren’t familiar with decimal odds, most online bookmakers offer odds in either format. Look for a button that allows you to view the odds in decimal format, then you can compare them to odds you’re familiar with after you’ve done the math.

1/ Estimate how often each team will win this game if played over a large sample size. For example, in 1000 matches, team A should win 65% of the time, and team B should win 35%.

2/ Compare odds at multiple bookmakers and find the best decimal odds for each team.

3/ Multiply these numbers and look for 1.00 or better. If the odds on team A at 65% is 1.50, the math looks like this:

Team A: .65 X 1.50 odds = .975 – not a value bet.
Team B: .35 X 3.15 odds = 1.10 – value bet.

One problem with calculating value in football is the chance of a draw. It’s easier to estimate the winning percentage of each team than it is to predict the draw, which means that punters who want to win consistently need to find statistics to help them determine the chances of this occurring. The closer the matchup, the more likely it is that a draw will occur. When one team is greatly favoured over their opponent, the chances of a draw are less likely to occur. So, how do we determine these chances?

There are free statistics that can be found online, as well as websites with paid stats services. For serious punters, the paid services tend to offer a wider selection of stats available. Keep in mind that historical stats between two teams can help us, but unless these teams played 100 times yesterday, we can’t use these types of stats for calculating accurate odds today. Of course we still have to consider all of the things that are different in todays game versus the way things were in the past. This isn’t easy.

How to Quantify a Teams Chances to Win

To come up with an accurate idea of how likely a team is to win, of course we have to do research. Smart punters collect as much data as they can before putting a number on a team. Of course current record matters, but we can often draw information from the previous season as well. The more each team in a match have stayed the same since the previous season, the more we can rely on the numbers from that season.

Home and away records also matter, and these stats should be turned into a percentage for future reference. For example, if a team is 7-9 on the road, they’re winning percentage is 43.8% (wins divided by total away games played). Too many football punters go with the basic numbers which tell us that roughly half of all games are won by the home team, 25% are won by the away team, and 25% result in a draw. While this is true over time, we can’t rely on these numbers for any single game. These numbers really only tell us what we already knew, which is that there really is a home-field advantage. More than anything, I like to use those basic numbers to help me find value on underdogs on the road. Once again, it’s easier to find value on away teams when the home team is favoured. So when the odds are already low for the dog and yet their winning percentage on the road is high, this could be a good value bet.

There are many, many other factors we have to look at as well. How often does each team finish in a draw? What types of injuries do key players have? It’s not enough to identify starters, we need to know if a star player is playing with an injury that could make them less effective. What type of weather will there be, and how do the teams perform in that type of weather?

How well do you understand the game? New punters often move into sports they’re less knowledgeable in, thinking the numbers are enough. However, winning punters understand strategy of the game, and how different player matchups will affect the outcome.

Many punters use a spreadsheet to record the key numbers and help them quantify the winning percentages. One benefit of doing this is that research becomes easier for future matchups between these teams, and only slight adjustments need to be made before each new game.

Once you’ve collected enough information, decide how many times each team should win over the course of 100 or more matches. If you think team A will win 55% of those matches, that’s your number for calculating value.